Iran's Having a "Great" Time: A Guide to Everything Going Spectacularly Wrong

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Hey everyone,

So I've been reading about Iran lately, and I have to tell you—if you wanted to write a screenplay about "How to Speedrun the Collapse of a Government," what's happening there right now would be the director's cut.

Let me walk you through what's going down, because honestly, even the writers of Game of Thrones would look at this chaos and say "that's a bit much."

You know how sometimes you check your bank account after a weekend and go "oh no"?

Imagine that, but you're an entire country. And the weekend lasted 45 years.

Here's the Iranian economy right now, translated into human terms:

The rial is trading at 1.4 million against the dollar. That's not a typo. One million four hundred thousand rials to buy a single US dollar. Your morning coffee costs more digits than most phone numbers.

Inflation is running at 50-52%. If you saved up for a car at the start of the year, congratulations—you can now afford half a car. Maybe three wheels if you negotiate hard.

Iran needs oil to hit $163 per barrel to balance its budget. Current oil price? About $80. So they're only off by... checks notes... roughly half. Cool. Very cool. Everything is fine.

Capital flight hit $14 billion in nine months. When your own wealthy citizens are moving money out of the country faster than a teenager leaving a family gathering, that's what economists call "a bad sign."

IMF projects 0.3% growth for 2025. That's not growth. That's a rounding error. That's "we technically didn't shrink, so please stop asking questions" growth.

The protests began the way most revolutions do—with shopkeepers getting really, really tired of this nonsense.

Tehran's Grand Bazaar—which is basically the ancient Amazon warehouse of Iran, the place that has survived wars, invasions, and probably some very aggressive haggling—closed its doors in protest.

When the bazaar merchants decide they've had enough, you know things are serious. These are people whose entire personality is "what do you mean you won't buy this carpet?" and even they said "nope, we're out."

But here's what makes this different from 2009 or 2022:

These protests have spread to all 31 provinces. Every single one. Not just Tehran. Not just the big cities. Small towns that most people couldn't find on a map are joining in. The government's old playbook of "let's isolate the trouble spots" doesn't work when the trouble spots are literally everywhere.

And the slogans? Oh boy, the slogans have evolved.

It started with people shouting about bread and gas prices. Your standard "we can't afford basic things" complaints. Totally reasonable.

Now they're chanting about removing Supreme Leader Khamenei. That's like going from "can you please lower the thermostat" to "actually, let's tear down this entire house and start fresh." The escalation ladder has been climbed, set on fire, and thrown out the window.

Here's where things get interesting.

Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi—son of the Shah who was overthrown in 1979—is no longer just tweeting supportive messages from Los Angeles. He's gone full operations manager.

His latest move? Telling people across Iran to chant at exactly 8:00 p.m. to test nationwide coordination.

Think about that for a second. He's essentially running a distributed systems test on a revolution. "Can we get all 31 provinces to execute at the same time? Let's find out!"

He's also making direct appeals to the security forces. Not "you're all traitors" rhetoric—more like "look, guys, pick the winning side while you still can." It's less "join us or else" and more "join us and maybe you'll still have a job in six months."

Whether this works is anyone's guess. But the fact that he's even attempting it means someone thinks the calculus has changed.

When your country is falling apart, what's the smart move?

If you answered "have a calm, measured response that addresses people's legitimate concerns," congratulations, you would make a terrible authoritarian.

The Iranian government went with Option B: shut down the internet.

On January 8th, they implemented a nationwide blackout of internet and telephone services. Nothing says "we're totally in control" like making sure nobody can communicate or document anything.

But wait, it gets better.

You know Starlink, Elon's satellite internet that's supposed to work anywhere? The regime apparently deployed military-grade jamming equipment—possibly from Russia or China—to disrupt even satellite connections. Reports show 80% packet loss in some areas.

They're so committed to this blackout that they're jamming signals from space. That's not just censorship. That's dedication to censorship. That's "we will fight the literal sky if we have to" energy.

Also worth noting: security forces have killed at least 538 demonstrators according to monitoring groups. Hospitals in Tehran and Shiraz are overwhelmed. This isn't just an internet shutdown—it's an information shutdown while something very ugly is happening underneath.

Here's where things go from "domestic crisis" to "global anxiety attack."

Iran's entire regional strategy has collapsed. The Assad regime in Syria? Gone. Hezbollah in Lebanon? Severely degraded. The "Shia crescent" that Iran spent decades building? Looking more like a Shia semicircle at best. Maybe a Shia line segment.

Oh, and remember that war with Israel in June? The one where Israeli strikes hit Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan? That happened. Their nuclear program took direct hits.

Now add the protests.

President Trump has been presented with various military options including airstrikes on IRGC assets and cyberattacks on critical infrastructure. His public message: the US will hit Iran "very, very hard where it hurts" if the killing continues.

So we have:

This is what analysts are calling an "escalation loop." Domestic instability encourages foreign powers to push harder. Foreign pressure creates more domestic instability. Nobody wants to back down because both sides think backing down means losing.

Here's the uncomfortable truth that everyone sort of knows but doesn't want to say out loud:

Removing governments is relatively easy. Building stable states is incredibly hard.

If the Islamic Republic collapses tomorrow, what comes next? The sources I'm reading flag the risks: fragmentation, civil conflict, and—here's the scary one—loss of control over nuclear materials and missile technology.

Iran isn't some small country you can "fix" with good intentions. It has 86 million people, nuclear capabilities, and about a dozen different factions that all think they should be in charge next.

Right now, both the regime and its opponents are operating under "survival logic." Neither side believes backing down is an option. Neither side has a clear off-ramp.

If you're watching the markets, keep an eye on oil. Any serious escalation in the Gulf could spike prices fast—and unlike the usual Iran tensions, this feels different. More unstable. Less predictable.

If Iran descends into chaos or there's direct US military action, $80 oil becomes $120 oil overnight. And that ripples through literally everything.

The distance between "protests in Tehran" and "global energy shock" is shorter than most people think.

Stay sharp.

— Alex

This is not financial advice. This is "maybe pay attention to the news" advice.