The Government Is About to Print 20% of the Economy in 9 Months. Here's How to Not Get Wrecked.

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Hey everyone,

So I spent the weekend reading federal budget documents and economic projections, which is a totally normal and well-adjusted thing to do.

And let me tell you—what I found is absolutely unhinged.

The US government is about to inject $4.7 trillion into the economy. That's trillion, with a T. That's 20% of the entire American economy. In nine months.

To put that in perspective: that's more money than the GDP of Germany. It's like the government looked at a functioning economy and said, "What if we just taped a rocket to it and lit the fuse?"

This is either going to create the greatest wealth transfer in modern history—or the most spectacular inflation party since Weimar Germany. Probably both.

Let me break down what's happening, who wins, who loses, and how to make sure you're on the right side of this thing.

First up: tax refunds.

You're probably thinking, "Tax refunds? I get like $2,000 back. Big deal."

But this year is different. The government is retroactively applying 2025 tax cuts, which means a LOT of people are about to get unexpectedly fat checks.

Now here's the thing about tax refunds: most people immediately spend them on stuff they don't need. New TVs. Vacations. Those weird massage guns that everyone owns but nobody uses.

But about 20% of refund money historically flows into savings and investments. When you're talking about $1.2 trillion, that's $240 billion hitting the stock market.

That's not nothing. That's an entire year's worth of normal retail investing, arriving all at once.

Here's where it gets interesting.

For years, big tech companies have been stashing cash overseas like squirrels hoarding acorns. Apple alone has something like $200 billion sitting in Ireland, just vibing.

Why? Because bringing it back to the US meant getting absolutely demolished by taxes.

The government just announced a "repatriation holiday"—a one-time deal where companies can bring their offshore cash back at a reduced tax rate.

$2.1 trillion is about to flood back into America.

Now, the optimist in you might think: "Great! They'll build factories! Create jobs! Invest in America!"

The realist in you knows better.

Based on what happened during the last repatriation holiday (2004), roughly 70% of this money is going straight into stock buybacks and dividends. Companies aren't going to build things. They're going to buy their own stock, shrink the float, and make their shares more valuable.

Translation: this is rocket fuel for stock prices, not the economy.

Last wave: businesses are now allowed to write off the FULL cost of equipment and infrastructure immediately.

Normally, if you buy a $10 million AI server farm, you depreciate that cost over several years. It's boring accounting stuff.

Now? You can deduct the whole thing. Right now. Day one.

This is basically the government saying, "Please, for the love of God, buy AI hardware."

Companies are going to go on an absolute spending spree. Data centers. Servers. Chips. Cooling systems. The entire AI infrastructure ecosystem is about to get a $1.4 trillion adrenaline shot.

NVIDIA shareholders just felt a shiver of excitement and they don't know why.

While we're flooding the economy with cash, the government also rewrote the tax code. Here's what changed:

The Good Stuff:

How They're Paying For It:

So basically, the government is funding tax cuts for car buyers and dead rich people by taking food stamps from poor people.

Cool. Cool cool cool.

Here's a fun fact that should terrify you: The United States is 100% dependent on imports for 12 critical minerals.

Not 80%. Not "we're working on it." ONE HUNDRED PERCENT.

We literally dig minerals out of American dirt, ship them to China for processing, then buy them back as finished products. It's the geopolitical equivalent of paying someone to chew your food for you.

The government has finally noticed this might be a problem and is throwing $1 billion at domestic supply chains.

Companies to watch: Light Path Technologies (LPTH) for military optics, MP Materials (MP) for rare earth processing. These are basically national security plays disguised as mining stocks.

Global AI spending is about to jump 44% this year. But here's what's changing: the money is shifting from "training" models to "inference"—actually running them in production.

Think of it this way: training a model is like teaching someone to drive. Inference is the million hours they actually spend on the road afterward. The driving costs way more than the lessons.

Winners: NVIDIA (still the hardware king), Palantir (the integration layer for banks and military), and literally anyone in the data center cooling business (turns out AI runs hot).

The defense budget just hit $1.5 trillion.

Priority number one: a domestic missile shield. Raytheon (RTX) is basically printing money with locked-in Patriot missile contracts.

But here's the sexy stuff: counter-drone technology. Regular missiles cost millions. Drones cost thousands. You can't shoot a $5,000 drone with a $5 million missile—the math doesn't work.

Enter laser weapons. Companies like LSR are building high-power fiber lasers that can shoot down drones for basically the cost of electricity.

That's not science fiction. That's a Pentagon line item.

Here's the wildest prediction: the President is going to appoint a "well-trained" Fed Chair who will aggressively cut interest rates.

Why? Midterms are coming. Nothing says "vote for me" like cheap money and rising asset prices.

When rates drop: growth stocks moon, real estate moons, Bitcoin moons, your retirement account looks amazing, and everyone feels rich.

The problem? You're not actually richer. Money is just worth less.

Here's what nobody wants to say out loud:

Printing $4.7 trillion and flooding it into the economy in nine months is going to cause inflation. Real, painful, your-groceries-cost-more inflation.

The winners: People who own real assets—stocks, real estate, gold, Bitcoin, companies with pricing power (Microsoft, Google, Amazon can just raise prices).

The losers: People holding cash, bonds, or anything with a fixed return. Your savings account paying 4% is going to feel pretty weak when inflation hits 7%.

Cash is about to become the worst asset class you can own.

The wealth transfer isn't between rich and poor. It's between people who understand what's happening and people who don't.

Now you understand.

What you do next is up to you.

Alex Carte Trade the Times